Very interesting we are going completely lead free in about 4 years over here in UK .
I think the USA will not be far behind. Not a real issue though, the advancements in tungsten and bismuth make for some real nice loads. Steel breaks targets just fine. I wouldn't miss lead being banned.
In terms of effectiveness, no arguments.
$12/rd for Hevi-shot is simply not something most people cannot afford to shoot. It might be an option for a Remington 870 in the bedroom closet that doesn't make it out for hunting season but, for everyone else, it is simply unaffordable.
Even post-COVID I can find 'lead' Pheasant loads for $12/25 at Walmart as one example. Even Winchester Super Turkey LR loads are only $21/10 and that is on the high end compared to Remington and Federal which are ~$13~$14/10 but, out of stock locally.
However, how many of us can AFFORD to shoot those loads with any regularity?
~$65/5 for Hevishot and $35~$40/10 for most Bismuth makes shooting a shotgun a rich man's sport and excludes the masses. Bismuth loads are few and far between where I live so, perhaps pricing is a little better where it is used more. I also hope this doesn't turn into a butter/margarine/butter sort of issue where we learn after the change that the new better solution is worse than the original. Yes, lead is bad, and so is cancer and heart disease. Lead should not be used everywhere for every circumstance but, there are places and times when it is appropriate. Personally, I prefer copper or nickel-plated buckshot. For most birds out in the prairie and croplands, lead birdshot doesn't seem to be a big problem, especially relative to other things like herbicide and pesticide use and, you can argue over use of some fertilizers as well.