When will the firearms, ammo, and accessory supply chains catch up?

gostovp

New member
With the recent panic buys, all types of firearms (long guns, handguns, etc), ammo, and accessories are in short supply or completely sold out.

What is your opinion on how long before the supply chains catch up and the inventories start to come back and prices start to go back down? How long did it take for items to replenish and prices to stabilize after the last panic buy?

I'm making the assumption no significant gun control measures get passed....If for some reason something does get passed I fear the supply chains will never catch up or prices never come back down...
 
I'm with widowmaker. Fall of this year. Nothing crazy is gonna get passed. Obama is finished in 4 years. The Senators and Congress want their jobs for life. The last "assault ban" resulted in a bunch Dems loosing their jobs. Not all Democrats are gun grabbing idiots like Fienstein and Obama. There are a lot of voters between the coasts in this country.
 

Soon, I think. I just heard on the radio, that firearms sales are falling and on the way back to normal (source is background check numbers).

I think people have figured out that nothing is going to happen in Washington.

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One large dealer that I know said the reason that the number of NICS checks is down is due to the fact that most gun shops have little or next to nothing to sell - hence fewer NICS checks.

Another relatively large dealer I know closed his shop the last week of January and went duck hunting because he had no ammunition to speak of and his gun inventory was diminished to the almost extinct point. First vacation he'd had in 12 years. And he is not a small "mom & pop" dealer.

I agree that little or next to nothing will happen in DC, but this time the scare was far bigger than it was four years ago. It will take a few months for supply to catch up to the demand of the past couple of months created by Obama's re-election and then the school shooting.

Immediately after the school shooting there was a huge spike in gun and ammo sales.
 
Shops around here are picked bare of anything popular and nothing to order. Next surge will be when tax returns start coming in.
 
Thanks for the replies. Most shops around here are pretty thin on iventory. 9mm, 5.56, .223 are non existent. 40 S&W and 45 ACP are low or out of stock at most places. AR's and AK's are out of stock, and concealed carry pistols are in extremely short supply.

I would think manufacturers are going full tilt trying to produce things, but I'm sure there are things in the supply chain holding it up...steel, plastics, or any raw material...or smaller single source vendors that can't keep up w/ the huge demand from the manufacturers...could be anything and is likely many things.

I check galleryofguns.com every day and do searches just to see what semi auto pistols they have in stock..for awhile there was zero inventory...now I'm staring to see some inventory pop up, but some of it is ridiculously priced. The other day they had some Walther PPS 9mm's in stock (with the factory installed night sights)..the quotes that I got back were over $800 for that little single stack 9mm pistol! (Granted, it's a sweet pistol...but not $800 sweet!)...and they did sell out in a matter of minutes...
 
Lol do yall really believe there's a shortage? Ammuntion and gun manufacturers have warehouses full of goods. They are gonna hang on to them til they see if they can sale for a higher profit.
 
Originally Posted By: cawilson82Lol do yall really believe there's a shortage? Ammuntion and gun manufacturers have warehouses full of goods. They are gonna hang on to them til they see if they can sale for a higher profit.

They stall sales for more profit, can't say I believe that. Maybe the wholesale guys,but not the manufaturers.
 
Originally Posted By: cawilson82Lol do yall really believe there's a shortage? Ammuntion and gun manufacturers have warehouses full of goods. They are gonna hang on to them til they see if they can sale for a higher profit.

If that is the case, how come the price on the wholesale market hasn't gone up?

Manufacturers are producing a lot of guns and ammo, and the dealers are selling it as fast as it comes in, that's all there is to it. No secret warehouses, and they wouldn't have to wait to sell it for more, if they upped the price now they would still sell through it all.
 
Originally Posted By: Tim NeitzkeOriginally Posted By: cawilson82
Lol do yall really believe there's a shortage? Ammuntion and gun manufacturers have warehouses full of goods. They are gonna hang on to them til they see if they can sale for a higher profit.



They stall sales for more profit, can't say I believe that. Maybe the wholesale guys, but not the manufaturers.



That would require a massive conspiracy among wholesalers (and black helicopters everywhere)
lol.gif



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With AR's we saw smart guys and shall we say less than smart, the smart guys were selling when the selling was good.

I told my neighbor who is financially struggling to sell his AR while the prices were high, and get another quality one later when the prices settle back.

The guys who own small local shops are all talking about the market being driven by idiots, and laughing all the way to the bank. They say Obama has been the best thing for business since guns.

Before the election one was saying as much as he hated Obama he'd be good for business if he won. Obama winning the first election pretty much saved his business, he was sinking and about to go under prior to that.

Dems are letting the AR ban provision go in order to get background checks and straw purchases tightened.
 
Originally Posted By: woodguruWith AR's we saw smart guys and shall we say less than smart, the smart guys were selling when the selling was good.

I told my neighbor who is financially struggling to sell his AR while the prices were high, and get another quality one later when the prices settle back.

The guys who own small local shops are all talking about the market being driven by idiots, and laughing all the way to the bank. They say Obama has been the best thing for business since guns.

Before the election one was saying as much as he hated Obama he'd be good for business if he won. Obama winning the first election pretty much saved his business, he was sinking and about to go under prior to that.

Dems are letting the AR ban provision go in order to get background checks and straw purchases tightened.

I think the background check might fly if it didn't make a list of who has what - maybe a national firearms card (good in all 57 states), or just a NCIS check that says that it is OK to sell, but did not include what or even "if" there was a true sale... but we know what the real purpose is for the checks is, so I think it won't fly in it's present version.

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So true on the AR sales...I couldn't believe what some of my friends were paying for them...

I had been looking to buy a new single stack 'micro' sized 9mm pistol but then all this crap hit and the supply of those dried up, and the prices of those left went up...

I guess I will just wait a few months and hope that I can find the make/models that I was interested in.

Heck, maybe I should sell of my full sized Glocks right now at a 'premium' to finance it :)
 
Prices are coming down. I think when the prices hit a certain level, people who didn't own things( ar's, ammo, etc.) before the hype will begin to regret their purchases and dump them. I bet AR's will be in the $600-$700 by summer.
 
Assuming another mass-shooting doesn't hit the reset button and start the whole panic over, I think the next 2-3 months will see things improve.

One thing that has to be kept in mind is that most manufacturers can't increase production in any significant way without making large-scale changes. Since they all know that this is a temporary panic-induced situation, nobody is going to go out and build a new plant to try to meet this spike in demand. Supply will catch up with demand because the demand is going to go down, not because massive new supplies will hit the market.

I think we hit the bottom-out point about the last 2 weeks in January when nobody had anything in stock. That's going to cool off the panic buyers because there's nothing left to buy and no ammo to shoot in it if you do buy it.

It won't all get better overnight. The shelves will just slowly start to fill up again.

Grouse
 
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